How long before we can hug again?

From Public Health – Seattle & King County yesterday comes the following insight into our short term future with regards to social distancing.

How long will social distancing continue?

•The modeling done by IHME at the University of Washington is somewhat reassuring, but the conclusions are not certain.

•It doesn’t show what happens if people stop complying or are not as effective as they assume.​

•Our success at distancing has limited the number of people that have been infected, and that also means most of us remain susceptible to the virus.

•If we go back to business as usual, many people will be infected relatively quickly because COVID-19 remains circulating in the population.

•We remain at risk for a large outbreak that would overwhelm the healthcare system.

•That’s why the recent studies clearly state that we need to continue to stay strong with the Stay Home order for now.

It appears that they are waiting until there are near-zero deaths – late in May – before focusing on the following.

Containment Strategies

Widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolation of new cases to minimize the risks of resurgence while maintaining social distancing measures like limiting the size of gatherings to reduce the risk of large-scale transmission.